Abstract:Ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nokufunwa ngesinye sezizathu ezibangela ukukhuphuka kwamanani e-nickel, kodwa ngemuva kwesimo esishubile semakethe, ukuqagela okwengeziwe embonini "kuyinqwaba" (eholwa nguGlencore) kanye "nokungenalutho" (ikakhulukazi yiTsingshan Group)..
Muva nje, ngokungqubuzana phakathi kwe-Russia ne-Ukraine njenge-fuse, i-LME (London Metal Exchange) ikusasa le-nickel liqhamuke emakethe "edumile".
Ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo kungesinye sezizathu ezibangela ukukhuphuka kwamanani e-nickel, kodwa ngemuva kwesimo semakethe esishubile, ukuqagela okwengeziwe embonini ukuthi amandla amakhulu ezinhlangothi zombili "yinkunzi" (eholwa nguGlencore) kanye " empty" (ikakhulukazi yiTsingshan Group).
Ukuqedwa komugqa wesikhathi wemakethe ye-nickel ye-LME
NgoMashi 7, intengo ye-nickel ye-LME yenyuka isuka ku-US$30,000/ton (intengo yokuvula) yaya ku-US$50,900/ton (intengo yokukhokha), okuwusuku olulodwa olukhuphuke cishe ngo-70%.
Ngomhla ziyisi-8 kuNdasa, amanani e-nickel e-LME aqhubeka nokukhuphuka, akhuphuka afinyelela ku-US$101,000/ton, abese ehla abuyela ku-US$80,000/ton.Ezinsukwini ezimbili zokuhweba, intengo ye-nickel ye-LME ikhuphuke cishe ngama-248%.
Ngo-4:00 ntambama ngoMashi 8, i-LME yanquma ukumisa ukuhweba kwekusasa le-nickel futhi kuhlehlisele ukulethwa kwazo zonke izinkontileka ze-spot nickel ebezihlelelwe ukulethwa ngoMashi 9.
NgoMashi 9, i-Tsingshan Group yaphendula ngokuthi izothatha indawo ye-nickel plate yensimbi yasekhaya ifake ipuleti layo eliphakeme le-matte nickel, futhi yabele indawo eyanele yokulethwa ngamashaneli ahlukahlukene.
NgoMashi 10, i-LME yathi ihlela ukususa izikhundla ezinde nezimfushane ngaphambi kokuvulwa kabusha kokuhweba nge-nickel, kodwa izinhlangothi zombili zehlulekile ukuphendula kahle.
Kusukela ngoMashi 11 kuya ku-15, i-LME nickel iqhubekile nokumiswa.
NgoMashi 15, i-LME yamemezela ukuthi inkontileka ye-nickel izoqala kabusha ukuhweba ngoMashi 16 ngesikhathi sendawo.I-Tsingshan Group ithe izosebenzisana ne-syndicate ye-liquidity credit ye-Tsingshan's nickel holding margin kanye nezidingo zokukhokhelwa.
Ngamafuphi, iRussia, njengomthumeli obalulekile wezinsiza ze-nickel, yagunyazwa ngenxa yempi yaseRussia-Ukraine, okuholele ekungakwazini kwe-nickel yaseRussia ukulethwa ku-LME, okubekwe phezu kwezici eziningi ezifana nokungakwazi ukugcwalisa izinsiza ze-nickel I-Southeast Asia ngesikhathi esifanele, ama-oda angenalutho e-Tsingshan Group othango kungenzeka angenzeki. Ilethwe ngesikhathi, okudale ukusabela kweketango.
Kunezimpawu ezehlukene zokuthi lo mcimbi obizwa nge-"short squeeze" awukakapheli, kanti ukuxhumana nomdlalo phakathi kwezinhlaka ezithatha isikhathi eside nezimfishane, i-LME, nezikhungo zezezimali kusaqhubeka.
Ngokuthatha lokhu njengethuba, lesi sihloko sizozama ukuphendula le mibuzo elandelayo:
1. Kungani insimbi ye-nickel iba ingqikithi yomdlalo omkhulu?
2. Ingabe ukunikezwa kwezinsiza ze-nickel kwanele?
3. Ukwenyuka kwenani le-nickel kuzoba nomthelela ongakanani emakethe yezimoto zamandla amasha?
I-nickel yebhethri yamandla iba isigxobo esisha sokukhula
Ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwezimoto zamandla amasha emhlabeni, okuphakamise umkhuba we-nickel ephezulu kanye ne-cobalt ephansi kumabhethri e-ternary lithium, i-nickel yamabhethri amandla isiba isigxobo esisha sokukhula sokusetshenziswa kwe-nickel.
Imboni ibikezela ukuthi ngo-2025, ibhethri le-ternary yamandla omhlaba wonke izobalelwa ku-50%, lapho amabhethri e-nickel ternary ephezulu azobala ngaphezu kwama-83%, futhi ingxenye yamabhethri e-ternary ye-5-series izokwehla ibe ngaphansi kuka-17%.Isidingo se-nickel sizokhuphuka sisuka kumathani angama-66,000 ngo-2020 siye kumathani angama-620,000 ngo-2025, ngesilinganiso sokukhula kwenhlanganisela yonyaka esingama-48% eminyakeni emine ezayo.
Ngokwezibikezelo, isidingo somhlaba wonke se-nickel yamabhethri kagesi sizokhuphuka sisuka ngaphansi kuka-7% okwamanje siye ku-26% ngo-2030.
Njengomholi womhlaba wonke ezimotweni zamandla amasha, ukuziphatha kukaTesla "kwe-nickel hoarding" cishe kuyahlanya.I-CEO ye-Tesla u-Musk uphinde washo kaningi ukuthi izinto zokusetshenziswa ze-nickel ziyibhodlela elikhulu likaTesla.
I-Gaogong Lithium iqaphele ukuthi kusukela ngo-2021, i-Tesla isebenzisane ngokulandelana nenkampani yezimayini yase-French New Caledonia i-Proni Resources, isiqhwaga sezimayini sase-Australia i-BHP Billiton, i-Brazil Vale, inkampani yezimayini yaseCanada i-Giga Metals, umvukuzi waseMelika i-Talon Metals, njll. Inqwaba yezinkampani zezimayini zisayine inani lezivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokunikezwa kwe-nickel concentrates.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinkampani ezisochungechungeni lwemboni yebhethri lamandla njenge-CATL, i-GEM, i-Huayou Cobalt, i-Zhongwei, ne-Tsingshan Group nazo zikhulisa ukulawula kwazo izinsiza ze-nickel.
Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukulawula izinsiza ze-nickel kulingana nokuba yinhloko ithikithi lethrekhi yamatriliyoni amadola.
I-Glencore ingumhwebi wempahla omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni futhi ingelinye lamarecyclers namaphrosesa amakhulu kakhulu emhlabeni wezinto eziqukethe i-nickel, enephothifoliyo yemisebenzi yezimayini ehlobene ne-nickel e-Canada, e-Norway, e-Australia naseNew Coledonia.amafa.Ngo-2021, imali engenayo yempahla ye-nickel yenkampani izoba ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.816, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka okungaba ngama-20%.
Ngokusho kwedatha ye-LME, kusukela ngoJanuwari 10, 2022, ingxenye yamarisidi esitolo se-nickel yesikhathi esizayo ephethwe ikhasimende elilodwa inyuke kancane kancane isuka ku-30% yaya ku-39%, futhi ekuqaleni kuka-March, ingxenye yawo wonke amarisidi e-warehouse isidlule u-90%. .
Ngokwalobu bukhulu, imakethe iqagela ukuthi izinkunzi kulo mdlalo wesikhathi esifushane kungenzeka kube yiGlencore.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Tsingshan Group iphule ubuchwepheshe bokulungiselela "i-NPI (i-nickel pig iron from laterite nickel ore) - high nickel matte", eye yanciphisa kakhulu izindleko futhi kulindeleke ukuthi iphule umthelela we-nickel sulfate ku-nickel ehlanzekile. (enokuqukethwe kwe-nickel okungengaphansi kwama-99.8 %, eyaziwa nangokuthi i-primary nickel).
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, u-2022 kuzoba unyaka lapho kuzoqalwa khona iphrojekthi entsha yeTsingshan Group e-Indonesia.I-Tsingshan ilindele ukukhula okuqinile komthamo wayo wokukhiqiza esakhiwayo.NgoMashi 2021, uTsingshan wasayina isivumelwano sokuhlinzeka nge-nickel matte ephezulu ne-Huayou Cobalt kanye ne-Zhongwei Co., Ltd. I-Tsingshan izohlinzeka ngamathani angu-60,000 e-nickel matte ephezulu ku-Huayou Cobalt kanye namathani angu-40,000 e-Zhongwei Co., Ltd. phakathi nonyaka owodwa kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2021 kusukela ngo-Okthoba 21 I-nickel matte ephezulu.
Kufanele kuphawulwe ukuthi izidingo ze-LME zemikhiqizo yokulethwa kwe-nickel ziyi-nickel emsulwa, kanye ne-matte nickel ephezulu iwumkhiqizo ophakathi nendawo ongeke usetshenziselwe ukudiliva.I-Qingshan pure nickel ithengwa kakhulu eRussia.I-Nickel yaseRussia yavinjelwa ekuhwebeni ngenxa yempi yaseRussia-Ukraine, iphakamisa inani le-nickel eliphansi kakhulu emhlabeni, elibeka i-Qingshan engozini yokuthi "ayikho impahla okumele ilungiswe".
Kungenxa yalokhu ukuthi umdlalo omude omfushane wensimbi ye-nickel ususeduze.
Global nickel reserves kanye nokuhlinzeka
Ngokusho kwe-United States Geological Survey (USGS), ekupheleni kuka-2021, izindawo ezigciniwe ze-nickel zomhlaba wonke (iziqiwu ezifakazelwe zamadiphozithi asekelwe emhlabeni) zingamathani ayizigidi ezingama-95.
Phakathi kwazo, i-Indonesia ne-Australia banamathani angaba yizigidi ezingu-21 ngokulandelana kwawo, okubalelwa ku-22%, kukleliswe amabili aphezulu;IBrazil yenza u-17% wenani eligciniwe le-nickel elingamathani ayizigidi eziyi-16, ikleliswe endaweni yesithathu;I-Russia kanye nePhilippines zenza u-8% no-5% ngokulandelanayo.%, ikleliswe endaweni yesine noma yesihlanu.Amazwe aphezulu angu-5 enza u-74% wezinsiza zomhlaba jikelele ze-nickel.
Izinqolobane ze-nickel zaseChina zingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.8, ezibalelwa ku-3%.Njengomthengi omkhulu wezinsiza ze-nickel, i-China incike kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwezinsiza ze-nickel, ngezinga lokungenisa elingaphezu kwama-80% iminyaka eminingi.
Ngokwemvelo ye-ore, i-nickel ore ihlukaniswa kakhulu ibe i-nickel sulfide ne-lateite nickel, enesilinganiso esingaba ngu-6:4.Esokuqala sitholakala ikakhulukazi e-Australia, eRussia nakwezinye izifunda, kanti lesi sakamuva sitholakala ikakhulukazi e-Indonesia, eBrazil, ePhilippines nakwezinye izifunda.
Ngokusho kwemakethe yezicelo, isidingo esingezansi kwe-nickel siwukwakhiwa kwensimbi engagqwali, ama-alloy namabhethri wamandla.Insimbi engagqwali ibiza cishe u-72%, ama-alloys kanye ne-castings yenza cishe u-12%, kanti i-nickel yamabhethri cishe i-7%.
Phambilini, bekunemizila emibili ezimele uma kuqhathaniswa ne-nickel supply chain: "i-latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-stainless steel" kanye "ne-nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imakethe yokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo ye-nickel nayo kancane kancane ibhekene nokungalingani kwesakhiwo.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani elikhulu lamaphrojekthi ensimbi ye-nickel pig iron ekhiqizwa inqubo ye-RKEF isiqalile ukusebenza, okuholele ekusaleni okuhlobene kwensimbi ye-nickel yengulube;ngakolunye uhlangothi, eqhutshwa ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla, amabhethri Ukukhula kwe-nickel kubangele ukushoda okulinganiselwe kwe-nickel ehlanzekile.
Idatha evela kumbiko weWorld Bureau of Metal Statistics ibonisa ukuthi kuzoba nensalela yamathani angu-84,000 e-nickel ngo-2020. Kusukela ngo-2021, isidingo se-nickel emhlabeni wonke sizokhuphuka kakhulu.Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zamandla amasha kuqhubekisele phambili ukukhula kokusetshenziswa kwe-nickel kancane, futhi ukushoda kwempahla emakethe ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke kuzofinyelela kumathani ayi-144,300 ngo-2021.
Kodwa-ke, ngokuphumelela kobuchwepheshe bokucubungula umkhiqizo omaphakathi, umzila wokuphakelwa kwezakhiwo oshiwo ngenhla uyaphulwa.Okokuqala, i-lateite ore yezinga eliphansi ingakhiqiza i-nickel sulfate ngomkhiqizo omanzi ophakathi wenqubo ye-HPAL;okwesibili, i-lateite ore yezinga eliphezulu ingakhiqiza i-nickel pig iron ngokusebenzisa inqubo ye-RKEF pyrotechnic, bese idlula ekuvutheleni kwesiguquli ukuze kukhiqizwe i-nickel matte yezinga eliphezulu, yona ekhiqiza i-nickel sulfate.Iqaphela ukuthi kungenzeka ukusetshenziswa kwe-lateite nickel ore embonini entsha yamandla.
Njengamanje, amaphrojekthi okukhiqiza asebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-HPAL ahlanganisa i-Ramu, i-Moa, i-Coral Bay, i-Taganito, njll. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, iphrojekthi ye-Qingmeibang etshalwe yi-CATL ne-GEM, iphrojekthi ye-Huayue nickel-cobalt etshalwe u-Huayou Cobalt, kanye ne-nickel ye-Huafei. Iphrojekthi ye-cobalt etshalwe yi-Yiwei wonke amaphrojekthi wenqubo ye-HPAL.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, iphrojekthi ephezulu ye-nickel matte eholwa yi-Tsingshan Group yafakwa ekusebenzeni, okubuye kwavula igebe phakathi kwe-latterite nickel ne-nickel sulfate, futhi yaqaphela ukuguqulwa kwensimbi ye-nickel yengulube phakathi kwezimboni zensimbi engagqwali nezimboni ezintsha zamandla.
Iphuzu lemboni liwukuthi esikhathini esifushane, ukukhululwa komthamo wokukhiqiza we-nickel matte ephezulu akukakafinyeleli ubukhulu bokunciphisa igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwezakhi ze-nickel, futhi ukukhula kokunikezwa kwe-nickel sulfate kusancike ekuhlakazweni kwe-nickel eyinhloko njenge ubhontshisi we-nickel/i-nickel powder.gcina umkhuba oqinile.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukusetshenziswa kwe-nickel emikhakheni yendabuko njengensimbi engagqwali kuye kwagcina ukukhula okuqinile, futhi umkhuba wokukhula ngokushesha emkhakheni wamabhethri wamandla we-ternary uqinisekile.Umthamo wokukhiqiza wephrojekthi "ye-nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" ukhululiwe, futhi iphrojekthi yenqubo ye-HPAL izongena esikhathini sokukhiqiza ngobuningi ngo-2023. Isidingo esiphelele sezinsiza ze-nickel sizogcina ibhalansi eqinile phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa ku- esizayo.
Umthelela wokwenyuka kwentengo ye-nickel emakethe yezimoto zamandla amasha
Eqinisweni, ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwentengo ye-nickel, inguqulo ye-Tesla ye-Model 3 esebenza kahle kanye ne-Model Y yempilo ende, inguqulo esebenza kahle esebenzisa amabhethri e-nickel ephezulu kokubili kukhuphuke ngamayuan angu-10,000.
Ngokusho kwe-GWh ngayinye ye-high-nickel ternary lithium battery (kuthatha i-NCM 811 njengesibonelo), amathani ensimbi angu-750 e-nickel ayadingeka, futhi i-GWh ngayinye ye-nickel ephakathi nendawo (5 series, 6 series) amabhethri e-ternary lithium adinga i-500-600 amathani ensimbi we-nickel.Bese intengo yeyunithi ye-nickel ikhuphuka ngo-10,000 yuan ngethani lensimbi, okusho ukuthi izindleko zamabhethri e-lithium ye-ternary nge-GWh zikhuphuka cishe ngama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-5 kuya ku-7.5 million yuan.
Isilinganiso esinzima siwukuthi uma intengo ye-nickel ingu-US$50,000/ton, izindleko ze-Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) zizokwenyuka ngo-10,500 yuan;futhi lapho intengo ye-nickel ikhuphukela ku-US $ 100,000/ton, izindleko ze-Tesla Model 3 zizokhuphuka.Ukwenyuka cishe ngama-yuan angama-28,000.
Kusukela ngo-2021, ukuthengiswa komhlaba wonke kwezimoto zamandla amasha kuye kwanda, futhi ukungena emakethe kwamabhethri anamandla e-nickel aphezulu kuye kwanda.
Ikakhulukazi, amamodeli asezingeni eliphezulu ezimoto zikagesi zaphesheya ikakhulukazi amukela umzila wobuchwepheshe be-nickel ephezulu, okuholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwamandla afakiwe amabhethri e-nickel ephezulu emakethe yamazwe omhlaba, okuhlanganisa i-CATL, i-Panasonic, i-LG Energy, I-Samsung SDI, i-SKI nezinye izinkampani zamabhethri ezihamba phambili e-China, Japan naseNingizimu Korea.
Ngokomthelela, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuguqulwa kwamanje kwensimbi ye-nickel yengulube ku-nickel ephezulu ye-matte kuye kwaholela ekukhululweni kancane kwamandla okukhiqiza iphrojekthi ngenxa yomnotho onganele.Amanani e-nickel ayaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, okuzoshukumisa amandla okukhiqiza amaphrojekthi we-nickel matte aphezulu wase-Indonesia ukuze kusheshiswe ukukhiqizwa.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto ezibonakalayo, izimoto ezintsha zamandla seziqalile ukukhuphula amanani ngokuhlanganyela.Ngokuvamile imboni ikhathazekile ngokuthi uma intengo yezinto ze-nickel iqhubeka nokuvubela, ukukhiqizwa nokudayiswa kwamamodeli e-nickel ephezulu yezimoto zamandla amasha kungase kukhuphuke noma kube nomkhawulo kulo nyaka.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-12-2022