Ukudluliswa kwempahla:“Isicupho esifushane” se-LME kanye “nebhamuza eliphambili” LME isitokwe sethusi se-LME sehle safinyelela kumathani ayi-138,000, sisuka ngohhafu kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka. Ngaphezulu, lobu ubufakazi be-ironclad bokunikezwa okuqinile. Kodwa ngemuva kwedatha, "ukufuduka kwempahla" ye-transatlantic kwenzeka: Amasheya ethusi e-COMEX anyuke ngo-90% ezinyangeni ezimbili, kanti amasheya e-LME aqhubekile nokuphuma. Lokhu okudidayo kwembula iqiniso elibalulekile - imakethe idala ukushoda kwesifunda ngokwenziwa. Abahwebi badlulise ithusi lisuka ezindlini zokugcina izimpahla ze-LME baya e-United States ngenxa yesimo esiqinile sokuphatha kukaTrump ezindlekweni zensimbi. Iprimiyamu yamanje ye-COMEX yethusi yekusasa ku-LME yethusi iphezulu njengo-$1,321 ngethani. Lo mehluko wentengo owedlulele empeleni uwumkhiqizo “wentela yokunxeshezelwa”: abaqageli babheja ukuthi i-United States ingase ikhokhise intela ekuthengisweni kwekhopha ngokuzayo, futhi ithumele insimbi e-United States kusengaphambili ukuze ikhiyele iprimiyamu. Lokhu kusebenza kufana ncamashi nesigameko se-“Tsingshan Nickel” ngo-2021. Ngaleso sikhathi, izitoko ze-nickel ze-LME zasulwa kakhulu futhi zathunyelwa ezinqolobaneni zase-Asia, okwaqala ngokuqondile ukuminyanisa okufushane okukhulu. Namuhla, ingxenye yamarisidi e-LME ekhanseliwe isephezulu njenge-43%, okusho ukuthi ithusi elengeziwe lilethwa ngaphandle kwendawo yokugcina impahla. Uma leli thusi ligelezela endaweni yokugcina impahla ye-COMEX, lokho okubizwa ngokuthi "ukuntuleka kokuhlinzeka" kuzowa ngokushesha.
Ukwethuka kwenqubomgomo: “Induku yentela” kaTrump iyihlanekezela kanjani imakethe?
Isinyathelo sikaTrump sokwenyusa amanani entengo ye-aluminium nensimbi afinyelele ku-50% sesiphenduke insakavukela umchilo wesidwaba emananini ethusi. Nakuba ithusi lingakafakwa ohlwini lwezindleko, imakethe isiqalile “ukuphinda” isimo esibi kakhulu. Lokhu kuziphatha kokuthenga kwethukile kwenze inqubomgomo yaba isiprofetho esizigcwalisayo. Ukuphikisana okujulile ukuthi i-United States ayinakukwazi ukukhokhela izindleko zokuphazamisa ukuthengwa kwethusi. Njengomunye wabathengi bethusi abakhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni, i-United States idinga ukungenisa amathani ayizigidi ezi-3 zethusi elicwengekile unyaka ngamunye, kuyilapho ukukhiqizwa kwayo ekhaya kungamathani ayisigidi esisodwa kuphela. Uma amanani entengo ekhokhiswa ikhopha, izimboni ezansi nomfula njengezimoto nogesi zizogcina zikhokhe isikweletu. Le nqubomgomo "yokuzidubula onyaweni" iwuhlelo nje lokuxoxisana ngemidlalo yezepolitiki, kodwa ichazwa yimakethe njengento embi kakhulu.
Ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Ingabe ukumiswa kokukhiqiza eDemocratic Republic of Congo “kuyidada elimnyama” noma “ingwe eliyiphepha”?
Ukumiswa kafushane kokukhiqiza emayini yethusi yaseKakula eDemocratic Republic of the Congo kwenziwe ihaba yizinkunzi njengesibonelo senkinga yokuhlinzekwa kwempahla. Kodwa-ke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi umkhiqizo wemayini ngo-2023 uzofinyelela kuphela u-0.6% wengqikithi yomhlaba, kanti i-Ivanhoe Mines imemezele ukuthi izophinde iqalise ukukhiqiza kule nyanga. Uma kuqhathaniswa nezenzakalo ezingazelelwe, okufanele kakhulu ukuqapha yibhodlela lokuhlinzeka isikhathi eside: izinga lethusi lomhlaba wonke liyaqhubeka nokwehla, futhi umjikelezo wokuthuthukiswa kwamaphrojekthi amasha ubude beminyaka engu-7-10. Lona umqondo wesikhathi esimaphakathi neside osekela amanani ethusi. Kodwa-ke, imakethe yamanje iwele ekungafanini phakathi "kokuqagela kwesikhashana" kanye "nenani lesikhathi eside". Izimali eziqagelayo zisebenzisa noma yiziphi iziphazamiso ze-supply-side ukuze zidale ukwethuka, kodwa zishaye indiva okuguquguqukayo okubalulekile-i-inventory efihliwe yase-China. Ngokwezilinganiso ze-CRU, indawo yaseShayina eboshiwe kanye nempahla yeziteshi ezingakahleleki ingase yeqe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1, futhi le ngxenye “ye-undercurrent” ingase ibe “i-valve yokuphepha” yokusimamisa amanani noma nini.
Izintengo zethusi: ukuhamba ngentambo phakathi kokuminyanisa okufushane nokuwa
Ngokobuchwepheshe, ngemva kokuba amanani entengo ekhopha ephule amazinga ayinhloko okumelana, abatshalizimali abathambekele njengezimali ze-CTA basheshisa ukungena kwabo, benza iluphu yempendulo enhle "yokukhuphuka okufushane kokuma-okuqhubekayo". Kodwa-ke, lokhu kukhuphuka okusekelwe ekuhwebeni komfutho kuvame ukuphela "ngokuguqulwa okumise okwe-V". Uma okulindelwe kwentela kwehluleka noma igeyimu yokudlulisa impahla isiphelile, izintengo zethusi zingase zibhekane nokulungiswa okubukhali. Embonini, indawo yamanje yeprimiyamu ephezulu ihlanekezela indlela yokubeka amanani: isaphulelo sendawo ye-LME ukuya kuMashi ithusi sinwetshiwe, sibonisa ukuthengwa komzimba okubuthakathaka; kuyilapho imakethe ye-COMEX ibuswa yizimali eziqagelayo, futhi amanani ahlanekezelwe kakhulu. Lesi sakhiwo semakethe ehlukanisiwe ekugcineni sizokhokhwa abathengi bokugcina-zonke izimboni ezithembele ekhopha, kusukela ezimotweni zikagesi kuya ezikhungweni zedatha, zizoba ngaphansi kwengcindezi yezindleko.
Isifinyezo: Qaphela "i-metal carnival" ngaphandle kokusekelwa nokufunwa
Phakathi kwenjabulo yentengo yethusi egqekeza uphawu lwama-trillion-dollar, sidinga ukucabanga ngokuzola okwengeziwe: lapho ukwenyuka kwentengo kuhlukaniswa nesidingo sangempela futhi lapho imidlalo yokusungula ingena esikhundleni somqondo wezimboni, lolu hlobo "lwempumelelo" luhloselwe ukuba umbhoshongo owakhiwe phezu kwesihlabathi. I-tariff stick kaTrump ingase ikwazi ukukhulisa amanani entengo yesikhathi esifushane, kodwa okunquma ngempela isiphetho samanani ethusi kusewumfutho wemboni yokukhiqiza yomhlaba wonke. Kulo mdlalo ophakathi kwezimali nezinhlangano, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuhlala udakiwe kunokujaha amabhamuza.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-07-2025