Abstract:Kusukela ekuqaleni kwekhulu leminyaka elisha, ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kobuchwepheshe bemishini ye-nickel kanye nentuthuko esheshayo yemboni yamandla entsha, iphethini yemboni ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke ibe nezinguquko ezinkulu, futhi amabhizinisi axhaswe ngamaShayina adlale indima ebalulekile ekukhuthazeni ukuguqulwa kwephethini yemboni ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke. Ngaso leso sikhathi, futhi yenze umnikelo oncomekayo ekuvikelekeni kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka nge-nickel emhlabeni jikelele.
Hlonipha Imakethe Futhi Uhloniphe Imakethe——Indlela Yokuthuthukisa Ukuvikeleka Kwe-Nickel Supply Chain yaseShayina kusukela ku-"Nickel Futures Incident"
Kusukela ekuqaleni kwekhulu leminyaka elisha, ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kobuchwepheshe bemishini ye-nickel kanye nokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwemboni yamandla entsha, iphethini yemboni ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke ibe nezinguquko ezinkulu, futhi amabhizinisi axhaswe ngezimali aseShayina adlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu ekukhuthazeni ukuguqulwa kwephethini yemboni ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke. Ngaso leso sikhathi, futhi yenze umnikelo oncomekayo ekuvikelekeni kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka nge-nickel emhlabeni jikelele. Kepha intengo yekusasa le-nickel yaseLondon ngoMashi kulo nyaka inyuke ngo-248% engakaze ibonwe ezinsukwini ezimbili, yadala umonakalo omkhulu ezinkampanini zangempela kubandakanya neChina. Kuze kube manje, kusukela ekushintsheni kwephethini yemboni ye-nickel eminyakeni yamuva, kuhlanganiswe "nesigameko sekusasa le-nickel", umbhali ukhuluma ngendlela yokuthuthukisa ukuphepha kwe-nickel supply chain yaseChina.
Izinguquko kuphethini yemboni ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke
Mayelana nesilinganiso sokusetshenziswa, ukusetshenziswa kwe-nickel kukhule ngokushesha, futhi i-China ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ekusetshenzisweni kwe-nickel emhlabeni jikelele. Ngokwezibalo ze-Nickel Industry Branch ye-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, ngo-2021, ukusetshenziswa kwe-nickel okuyisisekelo emhlabeni wonke kuzofinyelela kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.76, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-15.9% kanye nokuphindwe izikhathi ezingu-1.5 kokusetshenziswa ngo-2001. Phakathi kwazo, ngo-2021, ukusetshenziswa kwe-China eluhlaza kuzofinyelela ezigidini ezi-2 zonyaka owodwa kuya kwezigidi ezingu-2. ukwanda ngo-14%, okuphindwe ka-18 kunokusetshenziswa ngo-2001, futhi ingxenye yokusetshenziswa komhlaba wonke inyuke isuka ku-4.5% ngo-2001 yafinyelela ku-56% wamanje. Kungashiwo ukuthi u-90% wokwanda kokusetshenziswa kwe-nickel emhlabeni wonke kusukela ekuqaleni kwekhulu leminyaka elisha uvela eChina.
Ngokombono wesakhiwo sokusetshenziswa, ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi engagqwali kuzinzile ngokuyisisekelo, futhi ingxenye ye-nickel esetshenziswa emkhakheni webhethri iyaqhubeka nokukhula. Eminyakeni emibili edlule, umkhakha wamandla omusha uhola ukukhula kokusetshenziswa kwe-nickel okuyisisekelo emhlabeni jikelele. Ngokwezibalo, ngo-2001, ohlelweni lokusebenzisa i-nickel eChina, i-nickel yensimbi engagqwali yayilinganiselwa ku-70%, i-nickel ye-electroplating yaba ngu-15%, kanti i-nickel yamabhethri yabalelwa ku-5% kuphela. Ngo-2021, ingxenye ye-nickel esetshenziswa ensimbi engagqwali ekusetshenzisweni kwe-nickel yaseShayina izoba cishe ku-74%; ingxenye ye-nickel esetshenziswa kumabhethri izokhuphuka ifike ku-15%; ingxenye ye-nickel esetshenziswa ekwenzeni i-electroplating izokwehla ibe ngu-5%. Akukaze kubonakale ukuthi njengoba imboni entsha yamandla ingena emzileni osheshayo, isidingo se-nickel sizokhula, futhi ingxenye yamabhethri esakhiweni sokusetshenziswa izokhula ngokuqhubekayo.
Ngokombono wephethini yokunikezwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa, izinto zokusetshenziswa ze-nickel zishintshiwe zisuka ku-nickel sulfide ore ikakhulukazi zaya ku-lateite nickel ore kanye ne-nickel sulfide ore ebuswa ngokuhlanganyela. Imithombo ye-nickel yangaphambili yayiyi-nickel sulfide ore enemithombo yomhlaba wonke egxile kakhulu, kanti izinsiza ze-nickel sulfide zazigxile kakhulu e-Australia, eCanada, eRussia, eChina nakwamanye amazwe, okubalelwa ngaphezu kuka-50% yenani eliphelele le-nickel reserves ngaleso sikhathi. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwekhulu leminyaka elisha, ngokusetshenziswa nokukhuthazwa kobuchwepheshe be-lateite nickel ore-nickel-iron e-China, i-lateite nickel ore e-Indonesia nasePhilippines iye yathuthukiswa futhi yasetshenziswa ngezinga elikhulu. Ngo-2021, i-Indonesia izoba umkhiqizi we-nickel omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni, okuwumphumela wenhlanganisela yobuchwepheshe baseShayina, inhloko-dolobha kanye nezinsiza zase-Indonesia. Ukubambisana phakathi kwe-China ne-Indonesia kube negalelo elibalulekile ekuchumeni nasekuzinzeni kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka nge-nickel emhlabeni jikelele.
Ngokombono wesakhiwo somkhiqizo, imikhiqizo ye-nickel emkhakheni wokusabalalisa ithuthukela ekuhlukaniseni. Ngokwezibalo ze-Nickel Industry Branch, ngo-2001, ekukhiqizeni i-nickel eyinhloko yomhlaba wonke, i-nickel ecolisisiwe yayibala isikhundla esiyinhloko, ngaphezu kwalokho, ingxenye encane kwakuyi-nickel ferronickel kanye nosawoti we-nickel; ngo-2021, ekukhiqizweni kwe-nickel eyisisekelo emhlabeni jikelele, ukukhiqizwa kwe-nickel ecolisisiwe kubalwa ukuthi Kwehle kwafika ku-33%, kuyilapho ingxenye ye-NPI (i-nickel pig iron) ukukhiqizwa okuqukethe i-nickel ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-50%, kanti usawoti we-nickel-iron kanye nosawoti we-nickel babalelwe ku-17%. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2025, ingxenye ye-nickel ecolisisiwe ekukhiqizweni kwe-nickel eyinhloko emhlabeni wonke izokwehla nakakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokombono wesakhiwo somkhiqizo we-nickel oyinhloko waseShayina, cishe u-63% wemikhiqizo i-NPI (i-nickel pig iron), cishe u-25% wemikhiqizo iyi-nickel ecolisisiwe, futhi cishe u-12% wemikhiqizo usawoti we-nickel.
Ngokombono wezinguquko ezinkampanini ezimakethe, amabhizinisi azimele asephenduke amandla amakhulu ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka nge-nickel e-China ngisho nasemhlabeni. Ngokwezibalo ze-Nickel Industry Branch, phakathi kwamathani angu-677,000 omkhiqizo wokuqala we-nickel e-China ngo-2021, amabhizinisi amahlanu aphezulu aphezulu, okuhlanganisa i-Shandong Xinhai, i-Qingshan Industry, i-Delong Nickel, i-Tangshan Kaiyuan, i-Suqian Xiangxiang, ne-Guangxi Yinyi, ikhiqize i-nickel yokuqala. alinganiselwa ku-62.8%. Ikakhulukazi mayelana nesakhiwo sezimboni zaphesheya kwezilwandle, amabhizinisi azimele athatha ngaphezu kuka-75% wamabhizinisi atshalwa yizimali phesheya kwezilwandle, futhi uchungechunge lwezimboni oluphelele lokuthuthukiswa kwemayini ye-nickel-nickel-iron-stainless steel production senziwe e-Indonesia.
"Isigameko sekusasa le-nickel" sinomthelela omkhulu emakethe
Imithelela nezinkinga zidaluliwe
Okokuqala, intengo yekusasa le-nickel ye-LME yenyuka ngobudlova kusukela ngomhla ka-7 Mashi kuya ku-8, ngokukhuphuka okuhlanganisiwe okungama-248% ezinsukwini ezingu-2, okuholele ngokuqondile ekumisweni kwemakethe yekusasa ye-LME kanye nokukhuphuka nokuwa okuqhubekayo kwe-nickel ye-Shanghai ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange. Intengo yekusasa ayilahleki nje kuphela ukubaluleka kwayo okuyisiqondiso enanini lendawo, kodwa futhi idala izithiyo nobunzima kumabhizinisi ukuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nothango. Iphinde iphazamise ukukhiqizwa nokusebenza okuvamile kwe-nickel phezulu nomfula, okubangela umonakalo omkhulu ku-nickel yomhlaba wonke kanye namabhizinisi ahlobene akhuphuka nomfula.
Okwesibili ukuthi "isigameko sekusasa le-nickel" siwumphumela wokungabi bikho kolwazi lokulawulwa kobungozi ezinkampanini, ukuntuleka kokwesaba kwenkampani ngemakethe yesikhathi esizayo yezezimali, indlela yokulawula ubungozi enganele yemakethe yesikhathi esizayo ye-LME, kanye nesikhundla esiphezulu soguquko lwezwe. Kodwa-ke, ngokombono wezici zangaphakathi, lesi sigameko siveze inkinga yokuthi imakethe yesikhathi esizayo esentshonalanga yamanje ikude nezindawo zokukhiqiza nokusetshenziswa, ayikwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zemboni yangempela, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kwe-nickel derivatives futures akuzange kuhambisane nokuthuthukiswa kanye nezinguquko zemboni. Njengamanje, iminotho ethuthukile njengaseNtshonalanga ayiwona abathengi abakhulu bezinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi noma abakhiqizi abakhulu. Nakuba ukuhlelwa kwendawo yokugcina impahla kusemhlabeni wonke, izindawo eziningi zokugcina izimpahla zechweba nezinkampani zokugcina impahla zilawulwa abahwebi bakudala baseYurophu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngenxa yokuntuleka kwezindlela eziphumelelayo zokulawula ubungozi, Kunezingozi ezifihliwe lapho izinkampani zebhizinisi zisebenzisa amathuluzi azo ekusasa. Ukwengeza, ukuthuthukiswa kokuphuma kokunye okuphuma ku-nickel akuzange kuqhubeke, okuphinde kwenyusa ubungozi bokuhweba bezinkampani zemikhiqizo yangaphandle ehlobene ne-nickel lapho kuqaliswa ukulondolozwa kwenani lomkhiqizo.
Mayelana Nokuthuthukisa I-Nickel Supply Chain yase-China
Okunye Ukukhuthazwa okuvela Ezindabeni Zokuphepha
Okokuqala, bambelela ekucabangeni okuyisisekelo futhi uthathe isinyathelo sokuvikela nokulawula ubungozi. Imboni yensimbi engeyona insimbi inezici ezijwayelekile zokumaketha, ukwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokwenza imali. Ngakho-ke, amabhizinisi ezimboni kufanele athuthukise ukuqwashisa ngokugwema ubungozi, asungule ukucabanga okubalulekile, futhi athuthukise izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamathuluzi okulawula ubungozi. Amabhizinisi kufanele ahloniphe imakethe, esabe imakethe, futhi alawule ukusebenza kwawo. Amabhizinisi "aphumayo" kufanele ajwayele ngokugcwele imithetho yemakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, enze izinhlelo zokubhekana nezimo eziphuthumayo, futhi agweme ukuzingelwa nokuklinywa imali eqagelayo yaphesheya kwezilwandle. Amabhizinisi axhaswe ngamaShayina kufanele afunde kokuhlangenwe nakho nezifundo.
Okwesibili ukusheshisa inqubo yokwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwekusasa le-nickel laseShayina kanye nokwenza ngcono amandla entengo ezimpahla eziyinqwaba zaseChina. "Isigameko se-nickel futures" sigqamisa ukubaluleka nokuphuthuma kokugqugquzela ukwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwekusasa lensimbi engeyona ayoni elifanele, ikakhulukazi mayelana nokusheshisa ukukhuthazwa kwamapuleti aphesheya kwe-aluminium, i-nickel, i-zinc nezinye izinhlobo. Ngaphansi komklamo wezinga eliphezulu, uma izwe lezinsiza lingakwazi ukusebenzisa imodeli yentengo egxile emakethe yokuthengwa kwempahla neyokuthengisa "yenkundla yamazwe ngamazwe, ukulethwa kwezibopho, ukuthengiswa kwenani lensalela, kanye nehlelo le-RMB", ngeke nje kusungule isithombe saseShayina sohwebo oluqinile olugxile emakethe, kodwa futhi luthuthukise amandla entengo yempahla eningi yaseChina. Kungase futhi kunciphise ubungozi bokubiyela bamabhizinisi aphesheya kwezilwandle axhaswe ngamaShayina. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuyadingeka ukuqinisa ucwaningo ngezinguquko zemboni ye-nickel, futhi kukhuliswe ukutshalwa kwezinhlobo zekusasa eziphuma ku-nickel.
Mayelana Nokuthuthukisa I-Nickel Supply Chain yase-China
Okunye Ukukhuthazwa okuvela Ezindabeni Zokuphepha
Okokuqala, bambelela ekucabangeni okuyisisekelo futhi uthathe isinyathelo sokuvikela nokulawula ubungozi. Imboni yensimbi engeyona insimbi inezici ezijwayelekile zokumaketha, ukwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokwenza imali. Ngakho-ke, amabhizinisi ezimboni kufanele athuthukise ukuqwashisa ngokugwema ubungozi, asungule ukucabanga okubalulekile, futhi athuthukise izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamathuluzi okulawula ubungozi. Amabhizinisi kufanele ahloniphe imakethe, esabe imakethe, futhi alawule ukusebenza kwawo. Amabhizinisi "aphumayo" kufanele ajwayele ngokugcwele imithetho yemakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, enze izinhlelo zokubhekana nezimo eziphuthumayo, futhi agweme ukuzingelwa nokuklinywa imali eqagelayo yaphesheya kwezilwandle. Amabhizinisi axhaswe ngamaShayina kufanele afunde kokuhlangenwe nakho nezifundo.
Okwesibili ukusheshisa inqubo yokwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwekusasa le-nickel laseShayina kanye nokwenza ngcono amandla entengo ezimpahla eziyinqwaba zaseChina. "Isigameko se-nickel futures" sigqamisa ukubaluleka nokuphuthuma kokugqugquzela ukwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwekusasa lensimbi engelona ayoni elifanele, ikakhulukazi ngokwemibandela Yokukhuthazwa kwamapuleti aphesheya e-aluminium, nickel, zinc nezinye izinhlobo kuyakhula ngesivinini. Ngaphansi komklamo wezinga eliphezulu, uma izwe lezinsiza lingakwazi ukusebenzisa imodeli yentengo egxile emakethe yokuthengwa kwempahla neyokuthengisa "yenkundla yamazwe ngamazwe, ukulethwa kwezibopho, ukuthengiswa kwenani lensalela, kanye nehlelo le-RMB", ngeke nje kusungule isithombe saseShayina sohwebo oluqinile olugxile emakethe, kodwa futhi luthuthukise amandla entengo yempahla eningi yaseChina. Kungase futhi kunciphise ubungozi bokubiyela bamabhizinisi aphesheya kwezilwandle axhaswe ngamaShayina. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuyadingeka ukuqinisa ucwaningo ngezinguquko zemboni ye-nickel, futhi kukhuliswe ukutshalwa kwezinhlobo zekusasa eziphuma ku-nickel.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-12-2022